The circle of Assumptions; what is the circle of Assumptions? Well, the circle of Assumptions is an effective tool in helping people look at and realize what ideas they can actually justify having and which ideas were simply preconceived by situations they had been in or things they had simply heard.

At the core of all of our conclusions there is always data of some kind; and author Eric Douglas, in his groundbreaking new leadership book Leading at Light Speed describes the 10 Quantum Leaps which are ideas such what we are now discussing that build trust, spark innovation, and create a high-performing organization.

So when it comes to assumptions what should we as leaders do? For example, in talking about the future of the U.S. auto industry, someone might say: “The U.S. auto industry is incapable of making a high quality, fuel-efficient car at a profit. The industry simply isn’t structured that way.” In reaching that conclusion, this person relies on their data: First-hand experience shopping for cars, tidbits picked up from the news, a chart in the Wall Street Journal showing the relative shares of the world market over the past decade.

But while those data are valid, they may not be sufficient to support the conclusion.

Someone else who may have different data, for example, someone knowing the growth in the battery industry in the U.S. or the levels of investment in new fuel-efficient technology may find data that could lead them to a very different conclusion. For example that: “The U.S. is indeed capable of making fuel-efficient cars, and I’ll bet that it owns more than 50 percent of the world market in ten years.”

We now have a standoff. Both sides came to a conclusion, but did not share what data lead to those conclusions. Nor have they shared how they interpreted or evaluated that data. Using the Circle of Assumptions, one could take a systems approach and begin to seek out the truth. Asking questions like: “What was the data that led to that conclusion?”, “Can you help me understand your reasoning?” etc.

Rather than trade opinions back and forth, the data-based approach asks people to explain their reasoning and to trade in data. The Circle of assumptions helps us visualize that inside every action and conclusion sits a closet full of assumptions, and it is only by digging through those assumptions that we will come to have a better understanding and ultimately to better decisions.